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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."